If you’re looking for the cities most likely to have new jobs funded by the federal stimulus plan, seek out those with research universities, alternative energy research and production facilities, and state capitals. That’s where the biggest job gains from the federal stimulus are likely to be found, experts say.
“In the short run, the vast majority of stimulus money is going to government, construction projects, education and health, so those places that have universities, medical research organizations and state capitals would be in better shape to take advantage of the stimulus,” says Joel Kotkin, director of the Urban Futures Program at Chapman University and executive editor at NewGeography.com, which publishes an annual list of the best cities for jobs.
On the list of cities best poised to cash in on stimulus spending:
But even among those fortunate cities, there will be differences in job-growth rates. “Over time, the best places are going to be those that have a history of creating jobs in the recent past, such as Madison, as opposed to places that may be temporarily propped up by stimulus spending,” Kotkin says.
Other areas are so economically distressed that even stimulus spending isn’t going to boost jobs. “States like North Dakota and Texas, which are in better shape economically, may be in a position to use the stimulus for long-term growth as opposed to states like California where the stimulus will be absorbed by the state deficit,” he says. “You’ll get a Nobel Prize if you can figure out how to bring the Rust Belt back.”
President Obama also plans to expand the number of federal government employees, a move that benefits the nation’s capital. “The biggest beneficiary of the stimulus will be the Washington, DC, metro area, although I question whether potential cutbacks in defense might balance that,” Kotkin says.
Research Jobs -- Where and When?
The research-related jobs created by stimulus spending should start appearing during the second half of 2009, says David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s. Those jobs are concentrated in North Carolina’s Research Triangle Park (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) area, Silicon Valley, Austin and other areas that have significant medical and alternative energy research operations, Wyss says. “The Michigan universities are fighting for those, too, and they have lots of unemployed people,” he says
However, because alternative energy is currently such a small sector of the economy, it’s going to take awhile before the industry grows enough to create large numbers of jobs. “People are going to be nervous about investment in alternative energy, because they don’t know how long these jobs are going to be around,” Wyss says.
Regardless of when the jobs appear, they may not make a big dent in unemployment, because most research positions require advanced education and the highest unemployment rates are found among high school dropouts, he says.
Find the Green Jobs
Green jobs, which are often highly localized with alternative energy production, are most often found in areas with high energy prices and a reasonable amount of sun, such as Southern California, according to Wyss. But solar power is also appealing in areas outside the Sun Belt where energy prices are high, such as the Northeast, he adds.
Wind power pilot projects are concentrated in an area running from the Dakotas south through Texas, which now produces more wind power than California, Wyss says. “Once the windmills are up, you don’t have a lot of maintenance, but it’s a few years of construction jobs and you’ll see more of that going on around the country,” he says. “The initial jobs will be in research and building factories needed to produce the turbines.”
Jobs That Are Everywhere
If you don’t live in a city that hits the stimulus jackpot, you may still be able to find a stimulus-related job. Three areas funded by the stimulus plan -- healthcare, education, and infrastructure repair and construction -- are sending dollars to every state. “Each congressman tried to make sure that his district got a share of it, so there’s no real concentration of those jobs,” Wyss concludes.
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